Viticultural Suitability Analysis Based on Multi-Source Data Highlights Climate-Change-Induced Decrease in Potential Suitable Areas: A Case Analysis in Ningxia, China

As a perennial plant with long productive span of 30-50 years, grapevine may experience cross-lifespan climate change, which can modify wine quality and challenge viticultural sustainability. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the viticultural suitability by considering both current and future climate conditions. To this end, a maximum entropy model was proposed to delimitate potentially suitable areas for viticulture based on multi-source data in a novel wine region, Ningxia, China, considering both current and future climate conditions. Firstly, we combined traditional data of climate, soil, and topography with remote sensing data to screen predictors that best characterize current geographical distribution of vineyards. Then, we used those predictors to assess current suitability (2001-2020) in Ningxia. The results indicated altitude, aridity index during April-September (K0409), precipitation during July-September (P0709), normalized difference vegetation index during July-September (NDVI0709), soil organic carbon (SOC), and precipitation in September (P09) were key predictors to assess potential suitability for viticulture, and their threshold values ranged from 1075 m to 1648 m, 2.93 to 4.83, 103.1 mm to 164.1 mm, 0.1 to 0.89, 0.07 g/kg to 11 g/kg and 28.4 mm to 45.0 mm, respectively. Suitability maps revealed a total suitable area of 12029 km(2), among which the highly and moderately suitable areas accounted for 6.1% and 23.1%, respectively. Finally, the alteration in proportion of potential suitable areas due to changing climate was estimated. The potential suitable areas varied from 8742 km(2) to 10623 km(2) over the next 40 years (2022-2060) and decreased to 8826-9184 km(2) under a short-term sustainability (suitable only during current-2040). To further consider long-term and sustainable development of the wine industry (current-2060), total suitable areas dropped by 26.7-29.2% under different climate scenarios compared with current suitable areas (2001-2020). The conclusions provide indispensable guidance for vineyard zoning considering long-term climate change.