Development and validation of a nursing home mortality index to identify nursing home residents nearing the end of life in dental clinics.

One-year mortalities were 21% and 26% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Predictors included age, gender, communication capacity, physical mobility, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, chronic renal disease and liver disease. AUCs for the development and validation models were 0.73 and 0.68, respectively. For the validation cohort, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.79 and 0.53, respectively. The estimated 1-year mortality risks for three risk groups were 0%-10%, 11%-19%, and ≥20%, respectively CONCLUSION: The high mortality rate of NH residents following a dental exam highlighted a need to incorporate patients' prognoses in treatment planning along with normative needs and patients' preferences. The NHMI provides a practical way to guide treatment decisions for end-of-life NH residents.