Effect of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) on health indicators: climate change scenarios in a Brazilian metropolis

Recife is recognized as the 16th most vulnerable city to climate change in the world. In addition, the city has levels of air pollutants above the new limits proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2021. In this sense, the present study had two main objectives: (1) To evaluate the health (and economic) benefits related to the reduction in mean annual concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 considering the new limits recommended by the WHO: 15 µg/m3 (PM10) and 5 µg/m3 (PM2.5) and (2) To simulate the behavior of these pollutants in scenarios with increased temperature (2 and 4 °C) using machine learning. The averages of PM2.5 and PM10 were above the limits recommended by the WHO. The scenario simulating the reduction in these pollutants below the new WHO limits would avoid more than 130 deaths and 84 hospital admissions for respiratory or cardiovascular problems. This represents a gain of 15.2 months in life expectancy and a cost of almost 160 million dollars. Regarding the simulated temperature increase, the most conservative (+ 2 °C) and most drastic (+ 4 °C) scenarios predict an increase of approximately 6.5 and 15