Development and validation of a risk prediction scale for hypothermia during cesarean section: A prospective study

Background Evidence shows that active insulation can reduce the incidence of hypothermia during cesarean section; however, compliance is lower than recommended. Moreover, several aspects of temperature management via active heat preservation remain unclear, including patient indications, timing, methods, and duration. Therefore, promptly identifying parturients at a high risk for hypothermia during cesarean section is crucial. Objective To develop and validate a scale for predicting hypothermia in parturients during cesarean section. Design Prospective study. Setting Three grade A hospitals in Hunan Province, China. Participants The prediction scale was developed based on data from 369 parturients who underwent cesarean section from July 2018 to January 2019. Inclusion criteria were as follows: cesarean section under lumbar anesthesia, epidural anesthesia, or combined lumbar and epidural anesthesia; voluntary participation in the study and completion of the informed consent form; age >18 years. Methods Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine factors influencing hypothermia and establish the predictive model for hypothermia risk during cesarean section. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test was used to determine the goodness of fit of the prediction tool, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the predictive ability of the proposed scale. The cutoff value of the prediction scale was determined according to the Youden index. Results In the logistic regression prediction model, the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a p-value of 0.425. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.888. The model exhibited a good fitting effect and discriminant validity. Total risk scores for hypothermia ranged from 0 to 11. A score of 7 was used as the diagnostic cutoff value. Parturients during the operation who had total scores of ≥7 and <7 were considered the high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the scale was 0.891. The authenticity evaluation indicated that the incidence of hypothermia was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group. Conclusions The risk prediction scale developed in this study exhibits moderately predictive efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity for identifying parturients at high risk of hypothermia during cesarean section. Implementing this scale in clinical practice may help to decrease the incidence of hypothermia in such patients. Tweetable abstract This new predictive model can identify women who are at a high risk of hypothermia during cesarean section.