Potential geographical distribution of Anopheles gambiae worldwide under climate change

Background: Anopheles gambiae (An. gambiae) is considered the most effective malaria vector worldwide and is widely distributed in Africa. The purpose of this study is to determine the potential impact of climate change on An. gambiae and predict the present and future potential suitable habitat globally. Methods: In this study, environmental variables, global occurrence data of An. gambiae, and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and predict the habitat suitability of An. gambiae under the current and future scenarios. Results: Among all environmental variables, isothermality (Bio3, 34.5%) contributed the most to An. gambiae distribution. Under current climate conditions, the potential suitable areas for An. gambiae are mainly located near the equator (approximately 30°N-30°S), with a total area of 16.58 million km2, including central and northern South America, a fraction of areas near the equator of North America, central and southern Africa, some tropical regions of southern Asia, and small areas of Oceania. The areas of potential suitable habitats would be reduced to varying degrees in future climate scenarios. Conclusions: Potential suitable habitats for An. gambiae may not be limited to Africa. Necessary surveillance and preventive measures should be undertaken in high-risk regions, including those outside Africa, to monitor and control the spread of An. gambiae.