Globalization as Adaptive Complexity: Learning from Failure

AbstractOur modern global civilization has been facilitated by increasingly technologically-advanced, interconnected, and interdependent systems. These systems have been constructed at an ever-increasing scale and level of complexity without an awareness of the risky mechanisms inherent in their design. At first glance, one may find few similarities between our modern globalized present and ancient civilizations. When we see past civilizations as complex adaptive systems, however, we can begin to recognize patterns, structures, and dynamics that have remained consistent through the centuries. Mechanisms like tipping points, feedback loops, contagions, cascades, synchronous failures, and cycles that can be responsible for systemic collapse are fundamental characteristics of any complex adaptive system, and can therefore serve as an effective common denominator from which to examine collapses through the ages. We argue for an analytical framework that incorporates these systemic characteristics for the study of historical collapse with the belief that these common mechanisms will help illuminate and expose relevant vulnerabilities in historical systems. In the end, we hope to learn from past societies and civilizations and allow our modern systems to benefit from lessons of systemic failures that historians may share with us. We believe these insights could inform how we see our systemic vulnerabilities and help to build a more resilient future.