Timing of a Major Operative Intervention after a Positive COVID-19 Test Affects Postoperative Mortality. Results from a Nationwide, Procedure Matched Analysis

Background: Studies indicate that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection before or soon after operations increases mortality, but they do not comment on the appropriate timing for interventions after diagnosis. Objective: We sought to determine what the safest time would be for COVID-19 diagnosed patients to undergo major operative interventions. Methods: High-risk operations, between January 2020 and May 2021, were identified from the Veterans Affairs COVID-19 Shared Data Resource. Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes were used to exact match COVID-19 positive cases (n=938) to negative controls (n=7235). Time effects were calculated as a continuous variable and then grouped into 2-week intervals. The primary outcome was 90-day, all-cause postoperative mortality. Results: Ninety-day mortality in cases and controls was similar when the operation was performed within 9 weeks or longer after a positive test; but significantly higher in cases versus controls when the operation was performed within 7 to 8 weeks (12.3% vs 4.9%), 5 to 6 weeks (10.3% vs 3.3%), 3 to 4 weeks (19.6% vs 6.7%), and 1 to 2 weeks (24.7% vs 7.4%) from diagnosis. Among patients who underwent surgery within 8 weeks from diagnosis, 90-day mortality was 16.6% for cases versus 5.8% for the controls (P<0.001). In this cohort, we assessed interaction between case status and any symptom (P=0.93), and case status and either respiratory symptoms or fever (P=0.29), neither of which were significant statistically. Conclusions: Patients undergoing major operations within 8 weeks after a positive test have substantially higher postoperative 90-day mortality than CPT-matched controls without a COVID-19 diagnosis, regardless of presenting symptoms.