Duration of rectal colonization with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli : results of an open, dynamic cohort study in Dutch nursing home residents (2013–2019)

Background In 2016, a study in a Dutch nursing home showed prolonged colonization duration of extended-spectrum β -lactamase-producing (ESBL)-ST131 compared to ESBL-non-ST131. In this study, we assessed the duration of rectal ESBL-producing E. coli (ESBL-EC) colonization in residents in the same nursing home for an extended period of six years. We aimed to estimate the influence of a possible bias when follow up is started during an outbreak. Methods Between 2013 and 2019, repetitive point prevalence surveys were performed by culturing rectal or faecal swabs from all residents. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed to calculate the median time to clearance of ESBL-EC with a log-rank analysis to test for differences between ESBL-ST131 and ESBL-non-ST131. Results The study showed a median time to clearance of 13.0 months (95% CI 0.0–27.9) for ESBL-ST131 compared to 11.2 months (95% CI 4.8–17.6) for ESBL-non-ST131 ( p = 0.044). In the subgroup analysis of residents who were ESBL-EC positive in their first survey, the median time to clearance for ST131 was 59.7 months (95% CI 23.7–95.6) compared to 16.2 months (95% CI 2.1–30.4) for ESBL-non-ST131 ( p = 0.036). In the subgroup analysis of residents who acquired ESBL-EC, the median time to clearance for ST131 was 7.2 months (95% CI 2.1–12.2) compared to 7.9 months (95% CI 0.0–18.3) for ESBL-non-ST131 ( p = 0.718). The median time to clearance in the ESBL-ST131 group was significantly longer in residents who were ESBL-ST131 colonised upon entering the study than in residents who acquired ESBL-ST131 during the study ( p = 0.001). Conclusion A prolonged colonization with ESBL-ST131 was only found in the subgroup who was ESBL-EC positive upon entering the study. The prolonged duration with ESBL-ST131 in the previous study was probably biased by factors that occured during (the start of) the outbreak.