The Evolution of Land Resource Carrying Capacity in 35 Major Cities in China

With the rapid development of urbanization, it is necessary to understand the evolution of land resource carrying capacity (LRCC), so as to avoid irreversible damage to the land resources system in a specific region. Therefore, this paper aims to study the evolution of LRCC by four carrying status intervals of land resources. LRCC based on an evolutionary perspective can help the government manage land resources dynamically and rationally. This study defines LRCC from a carrier-load perspective and considers a higher or lower LRCC when facing the unbalanced relationship between socio-economic development and the supply capacity of land resources. Then, boxplots are used to investigate the LRCC in 35 major cities in China at different time points from 2012 to 2017. The results indicate that there was an increase in the number of cities with LRCC values in the unbalanced interval, with socio-economic development higher than the supply capacity of land resources. Shijiazhuang, Dalian, Harbin, Fuzhou, Chongqing, Kunming, and Taiyuan had LRCC values leaning towards an unbalanced situation. The main drivers that cause the phenomena mentioned above include policy, socio-economic development, and land use change. This study not only improves the understanding of the relationship between socio-economic development and the supply capacity of land resources and identifies the main drivers, but also provides a basis for control of LRCC according to the identifications of the main drivers.