Collapse of Breeding Success in Desert-Dwelling Hornbills Evident Within a Single Decade

Rapid anthropogenic climate change potentially severely reduces avian breeding success. While the consequences of high temperatures and drought are reasonably well-studied within single breeding seasons, their impacts over decadal time scales are less clear. We assessed the effects of air temperature (T-air) and drought on the breeding output of southern yellow-billed hornbills (Tockus leucomelas; hornbills) in the Kalahari Desert over a decade (2008-2019). We aimed to document trends in breeding performance in an arid-zone bird during a time of rapid global warming and identify potential drivers of variation in breeding performance. The breeding output of our study population collapsed during the monitoring period. Comparing the first three seasons (2008-2011) of monitoring to the last three seasons (2016-2019), the mean percentage of nest boxes that were occupied declined from 52% to 12%, nest success from 58% to 17%, and mean fledglings produced per breeding attempt from 1.1 to 0.4. Breeding output was negatively correlated with increasing days on which T-max (mean maximum daily T-air) exceeded the threshold T-air at which male hornbills show a 50% likelihood of engaging in heat dissipation behavior [i.e., panting (T-thresh; T-air = 34.5 degrees C)] and the occurrence of drought within the breeding season, as well as later dates for entry into the nest cavity (i.e., nest initiation) and fewer days post-hatch, spent incarcerated in the nest by the female parent. The apparent effects of high T-air were present even in non-drought years; of the 115 breeding attempts that were recorded, all 18 attempts that had >= 72% days during the attempt on which T-max > T-thresh failed (equivalent to T-max during the attempt >= 35.7 degrees C). This suggests that global warming was likely the primary driver of the recent, rapid breeding success collapse. Based on current warming trends, the T-max threshold of 35.7 degrees C, above which no successful breeding attempts were recorded, will be exceeded during the entire hornbill breeding season by approximately 2027 at our study site. Therefore, our findings support the prediction that climate change may drive rapid declines and cause local extinctions despite the absence of direct lethal effects of extreme heat events.