The Effect of Climate Change on the Water Supply and Hydraulic Conditions in the Upper Pejibaye River Basin, Cartago, Costa Rica

The consequences of climate change have challenged researchers to generate models and projections to understand climate behavior under different scenarios. In Costa Rica, as in other countries, climate-change (CC) models and projections are essential to make decisions about the management of natural resources, mainly water. To understand climate change's impact on hydraulic parameters such as velocity, depth, and river surface area, we studied the Pejibaye river basin, located in Jimenez in Cartago, Costa Rica. This watershed is characterized by having more than 90% of its surface area covered by forest. We used the precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations (2000 to 2009) and climate-change scenarios (2000-2099) to predict the response of the basin in different periods. First, we calibrated (NSE = 0.77) and validated (NSE = 0.81) the HBV hydrological model using ten years of daily data from 2000 to 2009. The climate-change data (2000-2099) were incorporated into the calibrated HBV model. This allowed us to determine the impact of CC on the basin water regime for the periods 2040-2059 (CCS1) and 2080-2099 (CCS2). The IBER mathematical model was used to determine the changes in the hydraulic variables of the river flow. For the CCS1, we determined a 10.9% decrease in mean velocity and a 0.1-meter decrease in depth, while for CCS2, the effect will be an 11.3% reduction in mean velocity and a 0.14-meter decrease in depth. The largest decreases in river surface area per kilometer will occur in May (1710 m(2)) for CCS1 and April (2250 m(2)) for CCS2.