Validation of an Empirical Model with Risk Assessment Functionalities to Simulate and Evaluate the Tailings Dam Failure in Brumadinho

The failure of tailings dams causes ecological damage and economic loss and can cause casualties. The simulation of the tailings' spill path in the event of tailings dam failures (TDFs) can mitigate the risk by the provision of spatial information for disaster prevention and preparedness. In order to close the gap between basic one-dimensional spill-path routing models and complex numerical models, this paper examines an empirical model based on the freely available Laharz model. The model incorporates a tailings-specific planimetric area regression from the literature to describe the spatial extent of tailings flows based on the released volume. By providing information about affected residents and infrastructure, such a model can be used for preliminary risk evaluation. The model was validated against the TDF in Brumadinho (2019) and reached hit rates of over 80%, critical success indices of approximately 60% and false alarm ratios of roughly 30%. The latter is particularly evident in the overestimation of the lower part of the tailings flow. The risk assessment identified 120 affected residents, 117 destroyed buildings (109 reported) and several kilometres of affected roads (1.9 km) and railway (2.75 km). However, the OpenStreetMap-based part of the risk assessment inherits some uncertainties to be investigated in the future.