Fertility Transition in Dakar, Nairobi, and Ouagadougou Since the 1970s: An Identical Reduction at All Ages Through Modern Contraception?

While some researchers have predicted a fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa similar to that witnessed in Europe, Latin America, or Asia, where practices of fertility limitation and long-term contraception have played a major role, others believe that it will differ. The aim of this article is to contribute to this debate, testing Caldwell's prediction of comparable declines in fertility in Africa at all ages through the adoption of modern contraceptives. We examine the cases of Dakar, Ouagadougou, and Nairobi, three capital cities where fertility is now relatively low (around three children per woman in 2010–2015), drawing on the various available data sources going as far back as the early 1970s. The data for these three cities confirm the hypothesis of a similar fertility reduction across all ages. However, Nairobi is the only city where contraception is the main strategy adopted by all age groups. Sexual non-exposure outside of the postpartum period played a key role in attaining low family sizes at younger and older reproductive ages in Ouagadougou and Dakar, as well as postpartum insusceptibility in Dakar.