Establishment of apiary-level risk of American foulbrood through the detection of Paenibacillus larvae spores in pooled, extracted honey in Saskatchewan

Paenibacillus larvae , the causative agent of American foulbrood (AFB), produces spores that may be detectable within honey. We analyzed the spore content of pooled, extracted honey from 52 large-scale (L) and 64 small-scale (S) Saskatchewan beekeepers over a two-year period (2019–2020). Our objectives were: (i) establish reliable prognostic reference ranges for spore concentrations in extracted honey to determine future AFB risk at the apiary level; (ii) identify management practices as targets for mitigation of risk. P. larvae spores were detected in 753 of 1476 samples (51%). Beekeepers were stratified into low (< 2 spores/gram), moderate (2- < 100 spores/gram), and high (≥ 100 spores/gram) risk categories. Of forty-nine L beekeepers sampled in 2019, those that reported AFB in 2020 included 0/26 low, 3/18 moderate, and 3/5 high risk. Of twenty-seven L beekeepers sampled in 2020, those that reported AFB in 2021 included 0/11 low, 2/14 moderate, and 1/2 high risk. Predictive modelling included indoor overwintering of hives, purchase of used equipment, movement of honey-producing colonies between apiaries, beekeeper demographic, and antimicrobial use as risk category predictors. Saskatchewan beekeepers with fewer than 2 spores/gram in extracted honey that avoid high risk activities may be considered at low risk of AFB the following year.