A multi-scale dendroclimatological analysis of four common species in the southern Canadian boreal forest

A comprehensive assessment of the tree growth/climate relationship was undertaken to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on the growth dynamics of four widespread and common boreal tree species, namely jack pine (Pinus banksiana), black spruce (Picea mariana), eastern larch (Larix laricina), and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides), located at the southern limits of the Canadian boreal forest. Over intra-annual time scales, results show that precipitation is likely the main driver of stem radius change (Delta R), with jack pine radius exhibiting the most consistent positive relationship. Precipitation had a stronger relationship with stem radius variation in black spruce and eastern larch during periods when volumetric water content (VWC) in the root zone was below average, pointing to the likelihood that certain species rely more heavily on available moisture in the uppermost layers of the soil column to replenish stem water, especially during extended dry periods. Warm air temperatures had an immediate negative impact on stem water content due to transpiration. This was most marked during periods of reduced moisture availability in the root zone, when trees are more susceptible to net water volume loss. During periods when moisture was not limiting, a positive relationship between lagged air temperature and Delta R was detected. Warm air temperatures may therefore play an important role in stimulating radial growth when moisture requirements are met. At annual temporal resolution, the growth/climate relationship changed over the lifetime of our study species. Over the last several decades, the relationship between precipitation and annual radial tree growth has weakened, while positive relationships between spring and summer air temperature and annual radial tree growth have emerged, likely signaling a decrease in moisture limitations, and a positive response to spring warming. Our findings reveal that boreal forest tree species may benefit from spring and summer warming over the near term, providing there is sufficient moisture to support growth. Over the long term, rates of evapotranspiration are expected to overshadow gains in moisture related to an increase in precipitation. Under these circumstances, we are likely to see reduced growth rates and an increasingly negative response of boreal tree species growth to warm air temperatures.