Interactions of Functional Traits With Native Status and Ecosystem Novelty Explain the Establishment of Plant Species Within Urban Ecosystems: Evidence From Berlin, Germany

A key challenge in urban biodiversity conservation is to understand the drivers that govern the population establishment of different groups of species in different urban ecosystems. Here, we ask whether and to what extent vascular plant species establishment (i.e., the ability to establish self-sustaining populations within a certain time span) is driven by interactions of species functional traits, native status, and the type of ecosystem species occur in, with types of ecosystems distinguished by their degree of ecosystem novelty. To answer this question, we use a dataset of 1,178 vascular plant species occurring in Berlin, Germany that originally had been compiled to substantiate the Berlin Red List of endangered plant species. This dataset classifies native and non-native species into casual and established species based on a minimum of 25 years of expert observation. Whether a species is established or casual is distinguished among four broad types of ecosystems: natural remnant, hybrid, novel immature, and novel mature ecosystems. Moreover, we classify species into those native to Berlin and non-native species (split into archaeophytes and neophytes), and link species to selected functional traits and indicator values. By applying ordinal regression within a Bayesian framework, we show that traits are key drivers of these establishment processes and that the traits that drive species establishment differ across types of ecosystems. While across traits, more established species are present in natural remnants, low canopy height, annual life span, and late end of flowering specifically promote establishment in novel immature ecosystems. In hybrid ecosystems, low canopy height and reproduction by seeds are beneficial traits, with the latter promoting establishment in novel mature ecosystems, too. Traits were less important in predicting species establishment in native as compared to non-native species. All types of ecosystems add to urban biodiversity, and trait analyses refine our knowledge on how they can be supported in doing so on the long term. This can help in sharpening conservation measures.