The Relationship between High-Presentation Asthma Days in Melbourne, Australia, and Modeled Thunderstorm Environments

Epidemic asthma events represent a significant risk to emergency services as well as the wider community. In southeastern Australia, these events occur in conjunction with relatively high amounts of grass pollen during the late spring and early summer, which may become concentrated in populated areas through atmospheric convergence caused by a number of physical mechanisms including thunderstorm outflow. Thunderstorm forecasts are therefore important for identifying epidemic asthma risk factors. However, the representation of thunderstorm environments using regional numerical weather prediction models, which are a key aspect of the construction of these forecasts, have not yet been systematically evaluated in the context of epidemic asthma events. Here, we evaluate diagnostics of thunderstorm environments from historical simulations of weather conditions in the vicinity of Melbourne, Australia, in relation to the identification of epidemic asthma cases based on hospital data from a set of controls. Skillful identification of epidemic asthma cases is achieved using a thunderstorm diagnostic that describes near-surface water vapor mixing ratio. This diagnostic is then used to gain insights on the variability of meteorological environments related to epidemic asthma in this region, including diurnal variations, long-term trends, and the relationship with large-scale climate drivers. Results suggest that there has been a long-term increase in days with high water vapor mixing ratio during the grass pollen season, with large-scale climate drivers having a limited influence on these conditions.