Hindsight Learning for MDPs with Exogenous Inputs

We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for applications that deal with sequential decisions and exogenous uncertainty, such as resource allocation and inventory management. In these applications, the uncertainty is only due to exogenous variables like future demands. A popular approach is to predict the exogenous variables using historical data and then plan with the predictions. However, this indirect approach requires high-fidelity modeling of the exogenous process to guarantee good downstream decision-making, which can be impractical when the exogenous process is complex. In this work we propose an alternative approach based on hindsight learning which sidesteps modeling the exogenous process. Our key insight is that, unlike Sim2Real RL, we can revisit past decisions in the historical data and derive counterfactual consequences for other actions in these applications. Our framework uses hindsight-optimal actions as the policy training signal and has strong theoretical guarantees on decision-making performance. We develop an algorithm using our framework to allocate compute resources for real-world Microsoft Azure workloads. The results show our approach learns better policies than domain-specific heuristics and Sim2Real RL baselines.