Longer dry and wet spells alter the stochasticity of microbial community assembly in grassland soils

Climate change is increasing the duration of alternating wet and dry spells. These fluctuations affect soil water availability and other soil properties which are crucial drivers of soil microbial communities. While soil microbial communities have a moderate capacity to recover once a drought ceases, the expected alternation of strongly opposing regimes can challenge their capacity to adapt. Here, we set up experimental grassland mesocosms where precipitation frequency was adjusted along a gradient while holding total precipitation constant. The gradient varied the duration of wet and dry spells from 1 to 60 days during a total of 120 days, where we hy-pothesized that especially intermediate durations would increase the importance of stochastic community as-sembly due to frequent alternation of opposing environmental regimes. We examined bacterial and fungal community composition, diversity, co-occurrence patterns and assembly mechanisms across these different precipitation treatments. Our results show that 1) intermediate regimes of wet and dry spells increased the stochasticity of microbial community assembly whereas microbial communities at low and high regimes were subjected to more deterministic assembly, and 2) more persistent precipitation regimes (>6 days duration) reduced the fungal diversity and network connectivity but had little effect on bacterial communities. Collec-tively, these findings indicate that longer alternating wet and dry events lead to a less predictable and connected soil microbial community. This study provides new insight into the likely mechanisms through which precipi-tation persistence alters soil microbial communities and their predictability.