Closing of the yield gap can be achieved without groundwater extraction in Chinese wheat production

Groundwater depletion threatens global water and food security. Despite local successes in reducing groundwater extraction, the potential for transitioning currently irrigated systems to rainfed systems to address both production and groundwater use problems remains poorly understood at the national level. Here, we consider wheat production in China, which strongly benefits from groundwater irrigation, to assess the potential for achieving zero groundwater extraction, while maintaining current production. Using data from 1273 counties, we assessed the area-weighted potential yield and water productivity, and established the attainable values for each county using the top 10% of producers in the county. When data were aggregated at the national level, wheat yield and water productivity improved by 34% and 26% respectively, by closing gaps between the mean and attainable values. We next mapped the county-by-county acreage allocation and calculated the attainable production capacity. The results revealed that China could maintain wheat production without groundwater extraction by reducing the yield gap. This work provides essential insights and detailed spatiotemporal information for policymakers working to achieve groundwater and food sustainability.