Change in alcohol demand following a brief intervention predicts change in alcohol use: A latent growth curve analysis

Background The association between behavioral economic demand and various alcohol use outcomes is well established. However, few studies have examined whether changes in demand occur following a brief alcohol intervention (BAI), and whether this change predicts alcohol outcomes over the long term. Methods Parallel process piecewise latent growth curve models were examined in a sample of 393 heavy drinking emerging adults (60.8% women; 85.2% white; M-age = 18.77). In these models, two linear slopes represented rates of change in alcohol use, heavy drinking episodes, alcohol-related problems, and demand (intensity and highest expenditure across all price points or O-max) from baseline to 1 month (slope 1) and 1 month to 16 months (slope 2). Mediation analyses were conducted to estimate the effect of a BAI on 16-month alcohol outcomes through slope 1 demand. Results A two-session BAI predicted significant reductions in all five outcomes from baseline to 1-month follow-up. Although no further reduction was observed from the 1-month to the 16-month follow-up, there was no regression to baseline levels. Slope 1 demand intensity, but not O-max, significantly mediated the association between BAI and both outcomes-heavy drinking episodes (Est. = -0.23, SE = 0.08, p < 0.01) and alcohol-related problems (Est. = -0.15, SE = 0.07, p < 0.05)-at the 16-month follow-up. Conclusions Reducing high valuation of alcohol among heavy drinking emerging adults within the first month following BAI is critical for the long-term efficacy of the intervention. A two-session BAI was associated with enduring reductions in alcohol demand, and the change in demand intensity, but not O-max, was associated with sustained reductions in heavy drinking and alcohol-related problems.