O-415 Changing trends for mesothelioma in Canada and their implications

IntroductionCanada was once the world’s largest producer of asbestos, but exposure has been decreasing since the 1970’s due to restrictions on use, lower occupational exposure limits, closing of mines, and a ban in 2018.ObjectivesThe objectives of this study were to evaluate how rates of mesothelioma in Ontario and British Columbia (BC), which together constitute over 50% of the Canadian population, have changed over time, by sex, age, geographical region and tumour site.MethodsThe Ontario and BC Cancer Registries were used to identify 4,146 and 1,659 malignant mesothelioma cases between the years 1993–2017 and 1992–2016, respectively. Time trends were examined by sex, age, and anatomical site. Birth cohort models for Ontario were fit using US National Cancer Institute’s age-period-cohort analysis web tool.ResultsOntario incidence rates for mesothelioma climbed from 1.0/100,000 in 1993 until 2012 when rates plateaued at approximately 1.6. In BC the rate climbed from 1.1 in 1993 to 1.7/100,000 in 2003, when it began to plateau. Although female rates are much lower than male, they continue to steadily rise in both provinces. Rates among people over the age of 70 rose dramatically over time, while rates were steady or dropped among people below the age of 50 in both provinces. Peritoneal rates continue to rise in Ontario, but not BC. Relative to the 1921–25 birth cohort, male incidence rate ratios increased until peaking in 1936–40. Rate ratios for subsequent male cohorts decreased. In contrast, using the same reference period, the risk in women rose slowly with successive birth cohorts, though confidence limits were wide due to the low case counts.ConclusionThese complex changes over time may be due to major reductions in exposure in the 1970’s, longer latency periods associated with lower levels of exposure, and the growing importance of environmental exposures.