The Predictors of Early Mortality in Geriatric Patients who Hospitalized to the Intensive Care Unit with Aspiration Pneumonia

Aim In the geriatric group, aspiration pneumonia is one of the most common causes of Intensive Care Unit admission. Multiple comorbidities related with systemic diseases, as well as dementia, fraility and difficulty in swallowing or protecting the airway may all contribute the development of the AP in the geriatric age. Furthermore, many other variables may influence the outcome of this patient group. In this study, it is aimed to determine the parameters that may have an effect on the intensive care mortality. Materials and Methods 221 patients aged ≥ 80 years who were admitted to the third level ICU with the diagnosis of aspiration pneumonia were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into two groups according to the 28-day outcome (survived-nonsurvived). The admission levels of arterial blood Ph and pCO2 and lactate , blood urea, creatinine, potassium (K) and sodium (Na) levels, APACHE II, Glaskow Coma Scale (GCS), modified shock index (MSI) and the aspiration pneumonia's source ( community-acquired aspiration pneumonia (CA-AP) or healthcare-associated aspiration pneumonia (HCA-AP) )were recorded.The effects of these variables on 28-day mortality were analyzed. Results The presence of HCA-AP, GCS and APACHEII scores were found to be significantly correlated between the two groups. ROC analysis were done for those variables and cutoff points werecalculated. Logistic regression analysis indicated that APACHEII ( gt;22.5,AUC:0.812,P=0.00) and GCS ( lt;9, AUC:0.730, P=0.00) as the most prominentin dependent predictors of mortality (p lt;0,05, odds ratio 7.68, 3.23 respectively) with the presence of HCA-AP. Conclusion Although many variables are significant in predicting the first 28 days of mortality in ICU admission of geriatric patients with aspiration pneumonia, the presence of HCA-AP, high hospitalization APACHE II score and low GCS score were significant independent variables.