A Pharmacokinetics-Time to Alleviation of Symptoms Model to Support Extrapolation of Baloxavir Marboxil Clinical Efficacy in Different Ethnic Groups with Influenza A or B

Baloxavir marboxil, the prodrug of baloxavir acid, is an anti-influenza antiviral. Here, a pharmacokinetics-time to alleviation of symptoms (PK-TTAS) model was developed and used to (I) characterize the PK-TTAS relationship, (II) quantify the impact of covariates, and (III) predict TTAS in different ethnic groups. Data from 1781 otherwise-healthy (OwH) or high-risk (HR) patients included in phase II (JapicCTI-153090) and III studies (NCT02954354 and NCT02949011) were used; patients received either placebo or oral baloxavir marboxil. The natural distribution of TTAS in placebo-treated patients was modeled, then TTAS data from the baloxavir marboxil arms were added to model the impact of baloxavir acid concentration on TTAS. PK parameters estimated by a population PK model and informed by phase I data (NCT03959332 and KCT0003535) were included to simulate TTAS in Chinese and South Korean patients. Composite symptom score at baseline (TSS0), ethnicity, sex, and patient type (OwH or HR) significantly impacted the natural TTAS distribution. TTAS reduced with increasing baloxavir acid concentrations. Compared with placebo, high and low baloxavir acid exposures (AUC(0-inf) 5.13-16.65 and 0.72-5.13 mu g.hr/mL, respectively) significantly reduced TTAS; no covariates affected the drug effect on TTAS. Simulated TTAS was similar between OwH or HR Chinese, South Korean, and other Asian patients, with median reductions from placebo between 18.3-18.8 hours and 21.2-22.0 hours in OwH and HR patients, respectively, assuming TSS0 > 10. Ethnicity (Asian vs. non-Asian) did not significantly impact the drug effect on TTAS; predicted TTAS was similar across different Asian populations. This suggests Chinese and South Korean patients may benefit from similar efficacy as other Asian patients.