Contralateral advanced radiographic knee osteoarthritis predicts radiographic progression and future arthroplasty in ipsilateral knee with early-stage osteoarthritis

Purpose To explore whether the severity of contralateral knee osteoarthritis (OA) is associated with OA progression in ipsilateral knee with early OA. Methods Knees in early OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade (KLG):1–2) with intact baseline demographic and clinical data were retrieved from OAI database and defined as target knees. The target knees were divided into the exposure group (contralateral knees KLG 3 to 4) and the control group (contralateral knees KLG 0 to 2). Both groups underwent propensity score matching (PSM) concerning demographic data, as well as radiographic and clinical outcomes at the baseline. The primary outcome was the upgrade of KLG in the target knee in the first 12 and 24 months. The secondary outcome was the incidence of knee arthroplasty in ipsilateral knee during the first 108 months. Results One thousand seven hundred fifty-two knees were included, with 449 in the exposure cohort and 1276 in the control cohort. Four hundred thirty-four knees in each group were matched after PSM. Target knees in the exposure cohort showed a significantly higher rate of radiographic progression in the first 12 months (12.9% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.001) and 24 months (19.6% vs. 8.1%, P < 0.001). As for the risk of future arthroplasty, a significant difference was also found between the two groups (7.8% vs. 4.0%, P = 0.02). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the 108-month accumulated knee survival rate was significantly lower in the exposure group ( P = 0.01). Conclusion The ipsilateral knee with early-stage OA is prone to have worse early to mid-, and long-term prognosis in the circumstance of contralateral radiographic advanced knee OA. Key Points •Identifying early knee osteoarthritis (OA) with a high risk of radiographic progression and future arthroplasty enables early personalized intervention. •This is a novel study to investigate the relationship between the risk of future arthroplasty and contralateral knee status. •Propensity score matching holds promise to minimize selection bias in observational studies. •Knees with early OA are prone to have a high risk of radiographic progression and future arthroplasty in the circumstance of contralateral advanced knee OA.