Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on irrigation demand, crop yields, and green water scarcity in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

Climate change has significant implications for irrigated agriculture and global food security. Understanding how altered precipitation patterns and magnitudes, coupled with rising growing season temperatures, affect irrigation demand and crop production is a prerequisite for formulating effective water resources management strategies. This study evaluated the effects of near-term climate change (centered on 2035) on irrigation demand, green water scarcity, and row crop yields in a major agricultural watershed in southern New Jersey, USA. Downscaled precipitation and temperature from six General Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5 and 8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model.