Comparing the Relationships Between Money Bail, Pretrial Risk Scores, and Pretrial Outcomes

Objectives: There has been much discussion around the use of both money bail and pretrial risk assessment instruments. We examine how bail and risk scores compare in terms of their associations with failure to appear in court and rearrest during the pretrial period. Hypotheses: Our research questions included whether bail and risk scores differed between people who did and did not experience pretrial outcomes and whether pretrial scores were associated with outcomes when controlling for bail and other relevant covariates. Method: To examine these associations, we drew a sample of 492 people (33% women; 60% Black) booked into county jail in a jurisdiction not yet using a pretrial risk assessment instrument to inform release decisions. We completed the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) for this sample and collected data on failure-to-appear and rearrest incidents for 1 year following initial bookings. We examined the associations between bail amount, failure to appear, and rearrest and between PSA subscale scores, failure to appear, and rearrest. Results: Bail amount was not associated with either failure to appear or rearrest. People who failed to appear or were rearrested had higher bail amounts, on average, than people who did not. In contrast, PSA subscale scores were significantly associated with outcomes in the expected direction. Conclusions: Our findings do not support the use of money bail for ensuring that people return to court and avoid rearrest. Instead, our findings suggest that using pretrial risk assessment, instruments could result in more accurate and appropriate release decisions. Public Significance Statement Money bail does not appear to be related to whether people miss court or experience rearrest during the pretrial period. Pretrial risk assessment scores, however, are associated with missing court and experiencing rearrest. These results do not support the use of money bail and instead suggest that using pretrial risk assessment instruments to inform release decisions may result in more accurate and appropriate decision-making.