The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented worldwide event with a massive impact on the economic system. The first Western country that had to face the COVID-19 crisis was Italy, which therefore represents a natural “case study.” By using the microdata and granular policy information available at the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, this paper provides a macroeconomic quantitative assessment of the initial emergency fiscal measures introduced in 2020 and an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 shock during the lockdown. We find that emergency measures avoided an additional fall of GDP of about 4.4% in 2020. The impact of public interventions on the dynamics of investments is particularly significant.