Framingham and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations, High-Sensitivity Troponin T, and N-Terminal Pro-Brain-Type Natriuretic Peptide for Predicting Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Events Across the Spectrum of Kidney Dysfunction

Background Contemporary guidelines recommend using atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease screening tools to guide primary prevention. The performance of these scores is not well known in patients with moderate to advanced chronic kidney disease, particularly in combination with clinically available cardiac biomarkers including N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT). Methods and Results We studied 1027 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort without self-reported atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease who were not taking aspirin or statins at enrollment. Framingham Risk Score, Pooled Cohort Equation, N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide, and hsTnT were measured at baseline. Outcomes included fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiac death. We calculated 10-fold cross-validated Harrell's C-indices for each risk score and cardiac biomarker alone and in combination. The C-index (95% CI) for discrimination of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was 0.72 (0.67, 0.77) for the Framingham Risk Score, and 0.72 (0.67, 0.76) for the Pooled Cohort Equation. HsTnT had comparable discrimination to each risk score, and improved the discrimination of each (change in Framingham 0.029, 95% CI 0.003, 0.055; change in Pooled Cohort Equation 0.027, 95% CI 0.002, 0.052). N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide had poorer discrimination than the risk scores and did not significantly improve their discrimination (change in Framingham 0.009, 95% CI -0.001, 0.018; change in Pooled Cohort Equation 0.011, 95% CI -0.001, 0.024). Conclusions The Framingham Risk Score and Pooled Cohort Equation demonstrated moderate discrimination for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease. HsTnT, but not N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide, improved their discrimination overall. Until chronic kidney disease-specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores can be developed, it may be worth considering how to incorporate hsTnT into existing clinical risk scores.