Preoperative prediction of malignant potential of 2-5 cm gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors by computerized tomography-based radiomics

BACKGROUND The use of endoscopic surgery for treating gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) between 2 and 5 cm remains controversial considering the potential risk of metastasis and recurrence. Also, surgeons are facing great difficulties and challenges in assessing the malignant potential of 2-5 cm gastric GISTs. AIM To develop and evaluate computerized tomography (CT)-based radiomics for predicting the malignant potential of primary 2-5 cm gastric GISTs. METHODS A total of 103 patients with pathologically confirmed gastric GISTs between 2 and 5 cm were enrolled. The malignant potential was categorized into low grade and high grade according to postoperative pathology results. Preoperative CT images were reviewed by two radiologists. A radiological model was constructed by CT findings and clinical characteristics using logistic regression. Radiomic features were extracted from preoperative contrast-enhanced CT images in the arterial phase. The XGboost method was used to construct a radiomics model for the prediction of malignant potential. Nomogram was established by combing the radiomics score with CT findings. All of the models were developed in a training group (n = 69) and evaluated in a test group (n = 34). RESULTS The area under the curve (AUC) value of the radiological, radiomics, and nomogram models was 0.753 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.597-0.909), 0.919 (95%CI: 0.828-1.000), and 0.916 (95%CI: 0.801-1.000) in the training group vs 0.642 (95%CI: 0.379-0.870), 0.881 (95%CI: 0.772-0.990), and 0.894 (95%CI: 0.773-1.000) in the test group, respectively. The AUC of the nomogram model was significantly larger than that of the radiological model in both the training group (Z = 2.795, P = 0.0052) and test group (Z = 2.785, P = 0.0054). The decision curve of analysis showed that the nomogram model produced increased benefit across the entire risk threshold range. CONCLUSION Radiomics may be an effective tool to predict the malignant potential of 2-5 cm gastric GISTs and assist preoperative clinical decision making.