Paleolimnological perspectives on the shifting geographic template of permafrost landscapes and its implications for Arctic freshwater biodiversity

Geographic context matters when laying to understand how permafrost thaw impacts northern freshwater biodiversity in a warming climate. Most risk to fresh water from thawing permafrost is associated with abrupt thaw processes known as thermokarst. Lake sediments can provide a record of thermokarst landscape development and associated biogeochemical and biodiversity trends over long timescales, providing a tool to link thermokarst geomorphology with freshwater biodiversity. We describe how paleolimnology, with its inherent emphasis on long-term perspectives, can characterize the shifting geographic template of warming thermokarst landscapes and its implications for biodiversity. We suggest aligning thermokarst lake paleolimnological research with hypothesis-testing frameworks used by permafrost hydrologists and biogeochemists and by the Freshwater Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program and advocate for knowledge co-production with northern Indigenous communities. Lastly, we stress the importance of considering geographic context in the choice of study sites to ensure that diverse thermokarst landscapes are represented (especially those most vulnerable to warming) and that the fine-scale differences in limnological settings that influence ecosystem response to thermokarst stressors are accounted for.