Analysis of Effects on the Dual Circulation Promotion Policy for Cross-Border E-Commerce B2B Export Trade Based on System Dynamics during COVID-19

In 2020, the cross-border e-commerce industry suffered a setback against the backdrop of the global epidemic. In the context of the global epidemic and economic structural reform and transformation, China has proposed a new economic pattern of "dual circulation" development, and this measure has greatly promoted the development of China's cross-border e-commerce industry. According to relevant data, the export share of China's cross-border e-commerce accounted for 77.6% of its market size in 2020. As a result, this paper studies the influence of the "dual circulation" measure on the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade and classifies and analyzes the policies related to the cross-border e-commerce industry in the "dual circulation" measure. Then, a system dynamics model reflecting the lag effect of this measure on cross-border e-commerce B2B export is also constructed, and the effects of different single policies and different policy combinations on cross-border e-commerce B2B export are simulated successively. The modeling process and simulation results demonstrate that: (1) infrastructure investment of cross-border e-commerce is most affected by policy lag, followed by government supervision and enterprise operation, while talent training of cross-border e-commerce and customs supervision are almost not affected by policy lag; (2) tax policy, customs clearance policy, and fiscal policy have greater effects on the promotion of cross-border e-commerce B2B exports, while the payment policy and talent policy have less impact on them; and (3) from the simulation results of policy combination, it can be seen that the regulatory environment (i.e., regulatory policies) is the most important to promote cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade, followed by financial support, customs environment, and business environment. Finally, this paper gives suggestions for the formulation of relevant government policies to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade and provide some reference values for other governments to develop the cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade industry.