Estimation of Scenario-based Liquefaction Probability with Consideration of Ground-motion Randomness

An approach for estimation of scenario-based liquefaction probability with consideration of ground-motion randomness is introduced. It is based on a modified version of the cyclic stress liquefaction assessment procedure where the cyclic stress and cyclic resistance ratios are considered time dependent and ground-motion dependent. This makes it possible to estimate the probability of liquefaction for a given seismic scenario. The approach can be applied to a given site to screen out the issue of liquefaction if the estimated probability of liquefaction is lower or equal to a tolerable value. The proposed decision-making is demonstrated for two sites with liquefaction-susceptible soils.