Patterns and determinants of carbon emission flows along the Belt and Road from 2005 to 2030

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has promoted economic growth of participating countries while giving rise to profound environmental consequences. To steer the BRI towards a low-carbon and green development, it is necessary to analyze past trajectories and future trends of BRI's CO2 emissions. To this end, we assess the patterns and determinants of emission flows along the BRI during 2005-2030 using the multi-region structural decomposition analysis technique. For the period 2005-2015, we show that intermediates export of the BRI embodied more CO2 emissions than final goods export. The significant technological improvement only partly offset the emission growth stemming from the deteriorated cross-border production structure and the surging final demand of the BRI in the past. For the period 2015-2030, our prospective analysis indicates that emissions embodied in exports of participating countries increase by over 20% in the reference scenario where historical development patterns of the BRI continue. The rise might be even higher if the initiative ends. On the contrary, enhancing diffusion and adoption of low-carbon technologies and promoting green trade within the BRI show substantial emission mitigation potential. Our empirical results reveal directions and priorities for policymaking in the pursuit of a green BRI.