Ergodic property, extinction, and density function of an SIRI epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and high-order stochastic perturbations

MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES(2022)

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摘要
In this paper, we investigate an SIRI epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and high-order stochastic perturbation. First, we obtain a stochastic threshold R0P related to the basic reproduction number R0. A key contribution of our paper is to derive the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the stochastic model if R0P>1. Next, by solving the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation, the exact expression of probability density function of the stochastic model is obtained. Moreover, we establish the sufficient condition R0Q<1 for disease extinction in a long term. Finally, several empirical examples and numerical simulations are provided to verify the above theoretical results.
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关键词
stochastic SIRI epidemic model, nonlinear incidence rate, high-order stochastic perturbation, Ergodic stationary distribution, density function, extinction
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