Anticipating academic performance and feedback: unrealistically optimistic temporal shifts in performance estimates and primary and secondary control strategies

Students typically overestimate how well they will perform on future academic events, then lower those expectations as the event and performance feedback approach. According to control theories, individuals also shift from primary control strategies to secondary control strategies when the opportunity to exert direct influence over a performance event passes. However, temporal patterns of control strategies have not been examined to determine whether they correspond with shifts in performance estimates during a performance opportunity cycle. To obtain a thorough view of congruence in patterns of performance estimates and control strategy use, the current study spanned multiple performance cycles. Participants were 50 college students, who estimated their performance on three course exams, both prior to and after completing each exam. In addition, they completed measures of primary and secondary control strategies prior to the exam and after feedback, when they also reported their level of motivation and general sense of control in the course. Initial performance estimates were unrealistically optimistic (compared to actual scores), then declined prior to receiving performance feedback. Performance estimates reverted to unrealistically optimistic levels in anticipation of the next performance event. Likewise, the primary control strategy of goal persistence and secondary control strategy of positive reappraisal declined from pre-exam performance to post-exam feedback then rebounded by pre-exam performance. Conversely, the secondary control strategy of lowering aspirations increased from pre-exam to post-exam feedback, then declined prior to the next exam. The current findings show temporal shifts in control strategy use that accompany similar patterns in performance estimates.