DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH IN ASSAM, INDIA: A STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE

The economy of Assam today represents a unique combination of backwardness amidst plenty. Despite its rich natural resources, and supplying of up to 25% of India's petroleum needs, Assam's growth rate has not kept pace with that of India. According to recent analysis, Assam's economy is showing signs of improvement. As per Planning Commission of India and Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation report, Assam is ranked 18th among all states and Union Territories of India The Nominal GSDP of Assam rose from 38,313 Crore Rupees in 2000-01 to 183,798 Crore Rupees in 2014-15. Sectoral analysis again exhibits a dismal picture. The average annual growth rate of agriculture, which was 2.6% per annum during 1980s, has fallen to 1.6% in the 1990s and again rose to 4.2% in 2000s. The manufacturing sector and tertiary sector have shown some improvements in 2000s as compared to those of 1980s. The present study seeks to examine the sector-wise growth rate and share on state GDP over the sample period 1980-81 to 2014-15. It also examines the influence of demand and supply sector as well financial variables on the state GDP using GARCH model during the sample period. Empirical results of the study suggest that the state GDP is driven by capital formation. Bank credit also plays an important role in determining output growth in Assam.