The Influence of Projected Outcomes on Preferences over Alternative Regulations: Evidence from a Recreational Fishery

The expected outcomes arising from alternative policies on respondent choice have not been sufficiently accounted for in stated preference studies. We accordingly de-velop a framework to quantitatively assess the influence of outcome provision and illustrate with a choice experiment in a recreational fishery. The application suggests that partici-pants are more likely to choose the status quo and low -cost options when outcomes are not provided, and these conservative behaviors might reflect the higher dispersion in anglers' utility in tautog (Tautoga onitis) fishing. Fur-ther investigations with latent class models suggest that the outcome provision makes a significant share of respondents changing their choice pattern. (JEL H41, Q22)