In vitro evolution predicts emerging CoV-2 mutations with high affinity for ACE2 and cross-species binding

AbstractEmerging SARS CoV-2 variants are creating major challenges in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Predicting CoV-2 mutations that increase transmissibility or immune evasion would be extremely valuable in development of broad-acting therapeutics and vaccines and prioritising viral monitoring and containment. Using in vitro evolution, we identify a double mutation in CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) that increases affinity for ACE2 almost 20-fold. We determine the mutant:ACE2 structure to reveal the binding mechanism and show the main affinity driver, Q498H, boosts binding of other RBD variants. We find this mutation incompatible with the common N501Y mutation, but N501Y variants can acquire Q498R to access a similar bonding network and affinity gain. We show Q498H, and Q498R plus N501Y, enable variants to bind rat ACE2 with high affinity. These mutations are now emerging in CoV-2 variants, such as the Omicron variant, where they would be expected to drive increased human-to-human and cross-species transmission.