Range shifts in butternut, a rare, endangered tree, in response to past climate and modern conditions

Aim Range shifts are a key process that determine species distributions and genetic patterns. A previous investigation reported that Juglans cinerea (butternut) has lower genetic diversity at higher latitudes, hypothesized to be the result of range shifts following the last glacial period. However, genetic patterns can also be impacted by modern ecogeographical conditions. Therefore, we re-investigate the genetic patterns of butternut with additional northern population sampling, hindcasted species distribution models and fossil pollen records to clarify the impact of glaciation on butternut. Location Eastern North America. Taxon Juglans cinerea (L., Juglandaceae) (butternut). Methods Using 11 microsatellites, we examined range-wide spatial patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness, heterozygosity, FST) for 1004 previously studied butternut individuals and an additional 757 samples. We constructed hindcast species distribution models and mapped fossil pollen records to evaluate habitat suitability and evidence of species' presence throughout space and time. Results Contrary to previous work on butternut, we found that genetic diversity increased with distance to range edge, and previously observed latitudinal clines in diversity were likely due to a few outlier populations. Populations in New Brunswick, Canada were genetically distinct from other populations. At the Last Glacial Maximum, pollen records demonstrate butternut likely persisted near the glacial margin, and hindcast species distribution models identified suitable habitat in the southern United States and near Nova Scotia. Main conclusions Genetic patterns in butternut may be shaped by both glaciation and modern environmental conditions. Pollen records and hindcast species distribution models combined with genetic distinctiveness in New Brunswick suggest that butternut may have persisted in cryptic northern refugia. We suggest that thorough sampling across a species range and evaluating multiple lines of evidence are essential to understanding past species movements.