A pattern-discovery-based outcome predictive tool integrated with clinical data repository: design and a case study on contrast related acute kidney injury

Background Clinical data repositories (CDR) including electronic health record (EHR) data have great potential for outcome prediction and risk modeling. We built a prediction tool integrated with CDR based on pattern discovery and demonstrated a case study on contrast related acute kidney injury (AKI). Methods Patients undergoing cardiac catheterization from January 2015 to April 2017 were included. AKI was identified based on Acute Kidney Injury Network definition. Predictive model including 16 variables covered in existing AKI models was built. A visual analytics tool based on pattern discovery was trained on 70% data up to August 2016 with three interactive knowledge incorporation modes to develop 3 models: (1) pure data-driven, (2) domain knowledge, and (3) clinician-interactive, which were tested and compared on 30% consecutive cases dated afterwards. Results Among 2560 patients in the final dataset, 189 (7.3%) had AKI. We measured 4 existing models, whose areas under curves (AUCs) of receiver operating characteristics curve for the test dataset were 0.70 (Mehran's), 0.72 (Chen's), 0.67 (Gao's) and 0.62 (AGEF), respectively. A pure data-driven machine learning method achieves AUC of 0.72 (Easy Ensemble). The AUCs of our 3 models are 0.77, 0.80, 0.82, respectively, with the last being top where physician knowledge is incorporated. Conclusions We developed a novel pattern-discovery-based outcome prediction tool integrated with CDR and purely using EHR data. On the case of predicting contrast related AKI, the tool showed user-friendliness by physicians, and demonstrated a competitive performance in comparison with the state-of-the-art models.