Limits to Paris compatibility of CO2 capture and utilization

The Paris Agreement’s temperature goals require global CO2 emissions to halve by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. CO2 capture and utilization (CCU) technologies are considered promising to achieve the temperature goals. This paper investigates which CCU technologies—using atmospheric, biogenic, or fossil CO2—are Paris compatible, based on life cycle emissions and technological maturity criteria. We systematically gathered and harmonized CCU technology information for both criteria and found that CCU with technology readiness levels (TRLs) of 6 or higher can be Paris compatible in 2030 for construction materials, enhanced oil recovery, horticulture industry, and some chemicals. For 2050, considering all TRLs, we showed that only products storing CO2 permanently or produced from only zero-emissions energy can be Paris compatible. Our findings imply that research and policy should focus on accelerating development of CCU technologies that may achieve (close to) zero net emissions, avoiding lock-in by CCU technologies with limited net emission reductions.