Prognostication of ICU Patients by Providers with and without Neurocritical Care Training

Background Predictions of functional outcome in neurocritical care (NCC) patients impact care decisions. This study compared the predictive values (PVs) of good and poor functional outcome among health care providers with and without NCC training. Methods Consecutive patients who were intubated for ≥ 72 h with primary neurological illness or neurological complications were prospectively enrolled and followed for 6-month functional outcome. Medical intensive care unit (MICU) attendings, NCC attendings, residents (RES), and nurses (RN) predicted 6-month functional outcome on the modified Rankin scale (mRS). The primary objective was to compare these four groups’ PVs of a good (mRS score 0–3) and a poor (mRS score 4–6) outcome prediction. Results Two hundred eighty-nine patients were enrolled. One hundred seventy-six had mRS scores predicted by a provider from each group and were included in the primary outcome analysis. At 6 months, 54 (31%) patients had good outcome and 122 (69%) had poor outcome. Compared with other providers, NCC attendings expected better outcomes ( p < 0.001). Consequently, the PV of a poor outcome prediction by NCC attendings was higher (96% [95% confidence interval [CI] 89–99%]) than that by MICU attendings (88% [95% CI 80–93%]), RES (82% [95% CI 74–88%]), and RN (85% [95% CI 77–91%]) ( p = 0.047, 0.002, and 0.012, respectively). When patients who had withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy ( n = 67) were excluded, NCC attendings remained better at predicting poor outcome (NCC 90% [95% CI 75–97%] vs. MICU 73% [95% CI 59–84%], p = 0.064). The PV of a good outcome prediction was similar among groups (MICU 65% [95% CI 52–76%], NCC 63% [95% CI 51–73%], RES 71% [95% CI 55–84%], and RN 64% [95% CI 50–76%]). Conclusions Neurointensivists expected better outcomes than other providers and were better at predicting poor functional outcomes. The PV of a good outcome prediction was modest among all providers.