Identification of close relationship between large-scale circulation patterns and ozone-precursor sensitivity in the Pearl River Delta, China

To curb the continuous deterioration of ozone (O3) pollution in China, identifying the O3-precursor sensitivity (OPS) and its driving factors is a prerequisite for formulating effective O3 pollution control measures. Traditional OPS identification methods have limitations in terms of spatiotemporal representation and timeliness; therefore, they are not appropriate for making OPS forecasts for O3 contingency control. OPS is not only influenced by local precursor emissions but is also closely related to meteorological conditions governed by large-scale circulation (LSC). In this study, a localized three-dimensional numerical modeling system was used to investigate the relationship between LSC and OPS in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China during September 2017, a month with continuous O3 pollution. Our results highlighted that there was a close relationship between LSC and OPS over the PRD, and the four dominant LSC patterns corresponded well to the NOx-limited, NOx-limited, VOC-limited, and transitional regimes, respectively. The clear linkage between LSC and OPS was mainly driven by the spatial heterogeneity of NOx and VOC emissions within and beyond the PRD along the prevailing winds under different LSC patterns. A conceptual model was developed to highlight the intrinsic causality between the LSC and OPS. Because current technology can accurately forecast LSC 48–72 h in advance, the LSC-based OPS forecast method provided us with a novel approach to guide contingency control and management measures to reduce peak O3 at a regional scale.