Climate change impact assessment on worldwide rain fed soybean based on species distribution models

Soybean is one of the most cultivated and important legumes in the world. Given its importance, understanding the shifts of climate suitability for this crop under climate change is essential. One way to map these potential changes in soybean distribution is through species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we conducted a SDM for soybeans, using data from non-irrigated soybean fields. We used CLIMEX and CliMond climatic data in 10' resolution data to model the current and future climatic potential distribution of soybeans, applying the general circulation model CSIRO-Mk3.0 and assuming an A2 emissions scenario for 2030, 2050, and 2070. We analyzed changes in the climatic suitability areas under these different climatic projections and highlighted the major soybean-growing countries (USA, Brazil, Argentina, China, and India). In the future, the consequences of climate change on soybean will probably depend on its locality on the globe. Climate suitability for soybean cultivation is likely to increase in countries and regions located at northern latitudes, such as Canada and Western Europe. On the other hand, countries located in tropical areas, for example Brazil and India, may suffer significant losses in suitable areas by 2070. Our model provides a more in-depth view of areas that can be incorporated into soybean cultivation and which stressors decrease the climatic suitability of soybean in current and future scenarios. Our results allow directing strategies in plant breeding for this crop, and policies to mitigate possible impacts on soybean production.