Performance of routine risk scores for predicting cirrhosis-related morbidity in the community

•Individualised 10-year risk of cirrhosis-related morbidity can be predicted in the community.•The APRI score exhibited the best discriminative ability (C-index >0.80).•10-year cumulative incidence was 14.8% for individuals with APRI in the 99th percentile.•Genetic risk scores were outperformed by more accessible alternatives.•Genetic risk scores add little new prognostic information beyond what is already captured by APRI and FIB-4.