How does COVID-19 affect the implementation of CORSIA?

This paper investigates the impacts of COVID-19 on the implementation of Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). By using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) aviation data, the forecast methods of Gompertz and Logistic curves and four COVID-19 scenarios, we find the following results. First, the international aviation activities of developing countries are on the track of rapid growth, while the trends of developed countries are relatively slow or even close to saturation. Second, our results provide retrospective support for the decision of the ICAO Council to revise the implementation baseline of CORSIA. The adjustment of the baseline has saved countries considerable purchasing offsetting costs, especially for China, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom. Third, although the adjustment of the baseline can lower the economic pressure of the global aviation industry, CORSIA will still bring considerable financial burden to international aviation enterprises. • Effects of COVID-19 on implementation of CORSIA are studied. • ADS-B aviation data and Gompertz and Logistic curves are used. • Offsetting requirements and offsetting costs are obtained. • Developed countries will be more severely affected by COVID-19.