P66 Epidemiology of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) by Histology and Disease Stage in Western Europe (WE): Population-Level Projections 2021-2026

NSCLC accounts for approximately 85% of all lung cancers. Population-level projections are critical to further anticipate disease burden and address unmet needs. We obtained the historic, annual age- and sex-specific incidence of lung cancer from country-specific registries in WE (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom). Histology data from the IARC’s Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (volume XI) were used to estimate total number of patients with NSCLC and by histology (non-squamous [NSQ] and squamous [SQ]). Assuming that observed trends will continue, the most recent country-, age-, and sex-specific incidence of NSCLC by histology were estimated and multiplied by the respective projected country populations to estimate annual number of cases from 2021 through 2026. Stage-specific distribution of NSCLC by histology according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition staging system from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for the year 2018 was applied. Total number of new NSQ NSCLC cases for the five countries is projected to increase from 162,789 in 2021 to 174,177 in 2026. NSQ stage IIIB/C increases from 9,735 to 10,417 and stage IV from 77,585 to 83,013 cases. The total number of new SQ NSCLC cases is projected to increase from 43,187 to 46,286 over the same period. SQ stage IIIB/C increases from 5,994 to 6,424 and stage IV from 13,423 to 14,386 cases. Newly diagnosed cases for advanced/metastatic NSCLC among all five WE countries is projected to rise 7.0% for NSQ and 7.2% for SQ NSCLC between 2021 and 2026, with most new cases being advanced/metastatic (stage IIIB/C-IV) patients. The 5-year overall survival rate for NSCLC remains ∼30% for stage III and ∼6% for stage IV. Coupled with projected increases in case numbers, this underlines the continued need for novel therapies and synergistic combinations to treat NSCLC.