Study of Health Human Resourc e in China Based on the Model of BP-ANN and Arima

OBJECTIVE To predict the total amount of the health human resource trend in Chinese Mainland and provide the scientific basis for the public health administrative department by analyzing defects and deficiences in the process of health human resorce management. METHODS Collect related material in 2004—2010 Chinese health statistics yearbook to get the amount of health human resource and health services needs in China. Use ARIMA model, neural network model for predictions of total health expenditure, health service need and the influencing factors in Chinese Mainland. RESULTS The total amount of health human resource in 1993 to 2009 showed an increasing trend, but the growth is slow compared to other health resources. It isPredicted that the amounts of our health human resources from 2010 to 2014 are 10 760 200, 8 375 200, 10 733 700, 10 760 200 and 10 759 400. CONCLUSION The gap of our health human resources is still great which needs to be narrowed. It is recommended to further increase health human resources funding, expand the amount of our health human resource while striving to improve the quality of health human resources.