Evaluación probabilística del peligro por lahares en el flanco NE del Volcán Popocatépetl
Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana(2017)
摘要
This study shows the results of a probabilistic evaluation
of laharic hazard to Santiago Xalitzintla, locality
in Puebla, at the NE flank of the Popocatepetl volcano
in Mexico. The TITAN2F software was used for
lahars modeling. The program forecasts were compared
with data obtained in the field for the laharic event of
2001 in order to evaluate the reliability of its use on
a digital elevation model. The results obtained with
TITAN2F are comparable with information reported
previously in other studies of this lahar; coming to the
conclusion that modeling with TITAN2F is reliable.
This investigation provides a useful tool for the knowledge
of laharic hazards. Also, it shows the probability
of the affected area by inundation as well as the probability
distribution of dynamic-pressure levels, which is
an important parameter for assessment risk in a lahar
flow.
To make a probabilistic analysis is required a number
of statistically representative hypothetic scenarios, covering
all possible cases. According to historical events
recorded, two possible sources for a laharic flow were defined,
and they correspond to the Huiloac and Alseseca
gorges. Based on the geological information, the ranges
of initial conditions that TITAN2F requires (velocity,
concentration and volume) were defined for each one of
the basins.
A stratified sampling was carried out using the Latin
Hypercube method (LHS). This method generates a
representative sample of hundreds of combinations from
the initial conditions, in order to modeling laharic events
with TITAN2F. The probabilistic analysis was made
through Bayesian inference, and programming routines
in OCTAVE. The probabilistic distribution indicates
that there is a nearly 80 % probability to be reached
by lahars at community areas of Santiago Xalitzintla.
However it is characterized by low dynamic-pressure
levels. The final section of the Huiloac gorge was
identified as a critical zone, where the probability that
dynamic-pressures surpassing destructive levels is high.
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